The NDIS is changing in 2026. Here's what families of children with complex needs actually need to know.
If you've been in a Facebook group anytime in the last 24 hours, you've probably seen the posts and a lot of bold headlines: “NDIS overhaul to kick 160,000 people off…”, "Tens of thousands to lose NDIS access in major overhaul", "Breaking: Tough new NDIS rules in overhaul to slash numbers". Panic. Confusion. '
People saying the NDIS is being abolished. We want to make it clear, it's not. But the changes announced yesterday are real, and many of them are significant, and families of children with complex needs deserve a clear picture, not more noise. In this article, and over the coming weeks, that’s is what we’re going to do.
On 22 April 2026, Minister for Health, Disability and Ageing Mark Butler addressed the National Press Club and announced a package of reforms framed as "securing the NDIS for future generations." We've gone through the speech, the government's fact sheet, and the sector response.
What did the government actually announce?
The NDIS is being restructured. And we want to make sure that is clear: this is a reshaping, not the end. It’s a measure the government is taking specifically to reduce its cost, narrow its scope, and change how people access it.
The scheme currently supports around 760,000 Australians at a cost of approximately $50 billion a year. Without change, the government projects that reaches $70 billion by 2030. The announced package aims to bring it to around $55 billion instead.
Four areas of change were named:
Fighting fraud and stopping rorting of scheme funds
Slowing cost growth. NDIS spending will be capped at 2% annual growth for four years, returning to 5% from 2030
Changing how eligibility works
Improving the quality of supports available to participants
The government expects participant numbers to fall from around 760,000 today to approximately 600,000 by 2030, roughly 160,000 people who would otherwise have had NDIS access will not.
That is a significant change. But it doesn't land all at once, and it doesn't affect all families in the same way. We wrote this to help answer some of the most pressing questions you might have, and give you a sense of the timeline the government is proposing.
Is my child going to lose their NDIS plan?
This is the question we're hearing most right now. The honest answer: it depends on where your child sits in terms of their support needs, and when their plan comes up for review.
The government has been explicit on one point: children with permanent and significant disability, and children assessed as having substantially reducedfunctional capacity, remain protected under the NDIS. That has not changed.
The families most at risk of losing NDIS access are those whose children have lower or moderate support needs, specifically children under 8 with autism or developmental delay who are being redirected toward the new Thriving Kids program (more on that below).
For families already on the NDIS: your child will not be removed from the scheme tomorrow. What will happen is that when your child's plan comes up for reassessment, it will be reviewed against new criteria. These new criteria, called functional capacity assessments (FCAs), replace the old diagnosis-based gateway. Under the old system, a diagnosis of a recognised condition was effectively a ticket in. Under the new system, what matters is the measurable impact of your child's needs on their day-to-day life. Now while it is a new criteria, FCAs are not [You can read more about them here].
No diagnosis has been removed from the scheme. Autism, cerebral palsy, intellectual disability, psychosocial disability, all remain eligible. The change is that a diagnosis alone is no longer sufficient. Functional impact needs to be demonstrated.
There is one change happening very soon. Tighter criteria for unscheduled plan reassessments, requests for a plan review outside your normal cycle, are expected to take effect around June 2026, shortly after the legislation passes. If your child has a genuine change in support needs approaching, it's worth raising it with your Support Coordinatornow rather than waiting. If you're not currently working with one, RippleAbility's Support Coordination team works exclusively with paediatric families and can help you prepare. If you’re not currently eligible for support coordination, please contact us about Paediatric Intensive Support Navigation, a subsidised service designed to help families navigate situations just like this.
What is Thriving Kids, and does it affect my family?
Thriving Kids is the new program the government has created to sit alongside, and eventually partially replace, the NDIS for a specific group of children. And it’screation is what is really underpinning this tectonic shift in the disability space.
It targets children aged 8 and under who have a diagnosis of developmental delay and/or autism and are assessed as having low-to-moderate support needs. From 1 January 2028, this group will be directed to Thriving Kids first, not the NDIS.
It's worth understanding what Thriving Kids is, and what it isn't.
What it will offer: parenting supports, navigation and information, targeted allied health supports (potentially including occupational therapy, speech pathology, physiotherapy and psychology), and access to low-cost equipment. It also comes with new Medicare items for allied health so families can access some supports outside the program itself. It will largely operate through existing systems (early learning centres, schools, community health) rather than creating something entirely new.
What it will not offer: individualised funding. Unlike the NDIS, there is no personal budget you manage. Supports are delivered through the program, not purchasedby the family. For children with complex, highly individualised needs, that difference matters.
What isn't confirmed yet: whether services will be free or co-paid at point of access is still being worked out between the Commonwealth and the states. How the line between "low-to-moderate" and "high" support needs will actually be drawn is also not yet determined, and this is the detail that will matter most for many families. The assessment tool hasn't been designed yet. Disability peak bodies including Amaze, DANA, and the Australian Autism Alliance have all raised this as a serious concern, and rightly so. The label "mild-to-moderate" doesn't exist as a clinical category; it's a policy construction, and how it translates into individual eligibility decisions will depend entirely on how the tool is built.
If your child is already on the NDIS: children who joined the scheme before 1 January 2028 will not be automatically moved off under the old eligibility rules. Their plan continues under its normal reassessment cycle.
If you haven't yet accessed the NDIS: if your child is under 8 and has been diagnosed with autism or developmental delay, the picture has changed. You should get specific advice on your situation before assuming which pathway applies to your family. Our PINS navigators offer support to help you work out where you stand.
The first Thriving Kids services are expected to go live on 1 October 2026 in some states, with full national rollout by 1 January 2028.
What's changing with plan values and how funding is spent?
Average plan values are expected to fall from around $31,000 to approximately $26,000, back to around 2023 levels.
The part of plans most directly targeted is social, civic, and community participation funding. This category has grown from around $4 billion five years ago to $12 billion this year. The government intends to bring it down. Progressive changes to this funding category begin from 1 October 2026.
The government's fact sheet is clear that these changes are not intended to affect supports critical to daily living and care. Therapy, health supports, and essential daily living are explicitly not the target.
If your child's plan has significant community participation funding, it's worth reviewing what that funding is delivering and whether you have documentation to support it: functional reports, therapy notes, your own written account of what the support makes possible in your child's life.
One further change: unspent NDIS funds will no longer roll over between plan years. Families who have historically carried forward savings for equipment or intensive support blocks will lose that option. Plans will need to be used within the period they cover. So please, USE THOSE BUDGETS.
What's changing with providers and Support Coordination?
Provider registration is tightening. Of approximately 260,000 NDIS providers in Australia, only around 16,000 are currently registered. That gap is being closed.
Expanded mandatory registration begins in July 2027, starting with personal care providers. The government is also moving to a commissioned model for plan management from 1 October 2027, meaning families will choose from an approved panel of providers rather than the current open market. What that panel looks like, and how many providers are on it, is still to be determined.
What this means for your family: some providers who have been operating unregistered will exit the market or need to meet new standards. If you are working with a small or sole-trader provider, it is worth checking their registration status over the coming months. RippleAbility is currently going through formal NDIS registration, so our families can have confidence that we're meeting the standards being set, not scrambling to catch up with them. We are also in the process of “future-proofing” many of our core services to ensure we’re able to continue working with families as these changes occur.
Support Coordination is also being restructured. A newly commissioned support coordination function is expected to begin from 1 July 2028. The details of how this works are still to come, but it is worth knowing the category is changing, not disappearing entirely.
When does all of this actually happen?
This is the thing getting lost in the social media noise. A lot of these changes are 2027 and 2028 territory. Here is the timeline as confirmed in the government's April 2026 fact sheet:
~June 2026: Tighter criteria for unscheduled plan reassessments take effect
1 October 2026: Social and community participation budgets progressively adjusted
1 February 2027: Tighter assessment of reasonable and necessary supports, beginning with new entrants
1 April 2027: New Framework Planning system commences
July 2027: Mandatory provider registration expansion begins
1 October 2027: New plan management approach begins, with a six-month transition
1 January 2028: New eligibility rules apply to new applicants; existing participants transitioned over time
1 July 2028: New support coordination function begins
The most immediate changes, the unscheduled reassessment criteria and community participation budgets, land in 2026. The structural changes to eligibility and coordination are 2027 and 2028. There is still time to prepare. Please, use it.
What should my family be doing right now?
Know your plan. Understand which funding category your child's supports sit in, how much is in each bucket, and when your plan is due for review. If you're not sure, your Support Coordinator should be your first call — that's exactly what they're there for. RippleAbility's Support Coordination team works exclusively with paediatric families and can help you get across the detail.
Document your child's functional needs. Functional capacity assessments will carry more weight under the new system. Therapy reports, school documentation, specialist letters, and your own written account of what your child's day looks like all matter. Don't wait until reassessment to pull this together.
If your child is under 8 with autism or developmental delay, get advice now. The Thriving Kids pathway is still being designed, but the January 2028 deadline is real. Families in this situation should understand their options before the window under current rules closes.
Don't make decisions based on Facebook posts. The information circulating is a mix of accurate, incomplete, and wrong. Go to sources you trust. Ask questions. If something you've read has worried you, bring it to someone who can tell you whether it actually applies to your family.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your child specifically, get in touch. That is exactly what our team is here for, not to hand you a fact sheet, but to sit with you and work through it.
We know that reading about policy changes is one thing, but sitting with the uncertainty of what it means for your child is something else entirely. If you're worried, that worry makes sense. These are real changes, and the detail is still unfolding. What we can tell you is that we're watching it very closely, we're at the table where these decisions are being made, and we're here to help you work through what it means for your family right now. You don't have to figure this out alone.
RippleAbility is a parent carer-led Western Australian social enterprise. We help families of children with complex needs navigate the disability, health, and education systems. Our PINS navigators and Support Coordinators work alongside families.
Sources: Minister Butler's National Press Club address, 22 April 2026; Australian Government fact sheet "Securing the NDIS for Future Generations," Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, April 2026; Team DSC; People with Disability Australia; Disability Advocacy Network Australia; Amaze; Autism Awareness Australia.
